Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda will hit international progress, economists inform FT polls

At the moment’s agenda: “Terrorism” in New Orleans; shipowners change to smaller vessels; gold set to rise greater; what to observe this yr; and FT critics decide the most well liked tickets of 2025

Good morning, and joyful new yr. We begin 2025 by asking greater than 220 economists how progress shall be affected by Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda.

What’s the impression of ‘Maganomics’? Whereas his precise plans are nonetheless unclear, most respondents anticipate the president-elect’s protectionist insurance policies to overshadow the advantages of different parts. Many economists within the US additionally consider the brand new Trump time period will spur inflation and make the Federal Reserve extra cautious about chopping rates of interest.

Nonetheless, most economists — together with these on the IMF, the OECD and the European Fee — forecast stronger progress within the US than in Europe in 2025. One analyst mentioned Trump’s plans, which embody threats of blanket tariffs and mass deportations, could deliver some short-term progress however “at the expense of a global slowdown which then will come back and hurt the US later on”.

Why it issues: For the Eurozone, the primary concern is about manufacturing, with the automotive trade in Germany — the area’s largest economic system — particularly in danger. Trump’s risk of a 60 per cent levy on China might additionally increase the prospect of Beijing flooding the area with low cost merchandise. One economist mentioned the UK, although seen as higher insulated from tariffs, may very well be uncovered to a “second-round impact” ought to tariffs weigh on Eurozone progress.

“The Trump administration will be an ‘unpredictability machine’ which will dissuade business and households from taking long-term decisions with ease,” mentioned PwC UK’s chief economist. “This will inevitably have an economic cost.”

Be a part of FT consultants on January 23 for a subscriber-only webinar, as they talk about what Trump’s return to the White Home means for America and the world. Register totally free right here. And right here’s what else I’m retaining tabs on right now:

• Financial knowledge: The Eurozone, US, France and Germany have manufacturing buying managers’ indices, as does the UK, which additionally has the Nationwide home worth index.

• Monetary markets: Buying and selling resumes within the US, UK and different international locations after yesterday’s break.

For a preview of key occasions in 2025, try the newest version of our Week Forward publication.

5 extra high tales

1. The FBI is investigating an “act of terrorism” after a person drove a pick-up truck into a big crowd within the coronary heart of New Orleans yesterday, killing at the least 15 individuals and injuring 35. US President Joe Biden mentioned authorities had been additionally investigating the explosion of a Tesla Cybertruck outdoors the Trump lodge in Las Vegas to see if the 2 incidents had been associated. Learn the complete story.

2. Shipowners are transferring on from the period of ordering ever-larger vessels and switching to smaller crafts as a substitute, in response to trade knowledge. The change is being prompted by the rerouting of world commerce from China to ports elsewhere in Asia, and the disruption is simply anticipated to proceed with Trump’s return to the White Home this month.

3. The value of gold is about to climb additional in 2025 though the tempo of beneficial properties is prone to sluggish after final yr’s bumper 27 per cent rally. Analysts surveyed by the Monetary Occasions anticipate gold to succeed in about $2,795 per troy ounce by the tip of the yr, or about 7 per cent above present ranges. Right here’s why the value of the yellow steel is prone to rise.

4. Unique: Job losses at European automotive half suppliers greater than doubled in 2024 because the slowdown within the continent’s automotive trade hit the fortunes of its manufacturing provide chain. Job creation has additionally slowed and there have been greater than 58,000 web job losses throughout the trade in Europe since 2020.

5. Russian fuel flows via Ukraine stopped within the early hours of yesterday after a transit deal between the 2 international locations expired within the wake of Moscow’s full-scale invasion. The pipeline was one of many final two routes nonetheless carrying Russian fuel to Europe, almost three years into the full-scale warfare. EU international locations will lose about 5 per cent of fuel imports in the midst of winter.

What to observe in 2025

Monetary Occasions reporters think about the rise of “sovereign” synthetic intelligence, the prospects for electrical automotive gross sales and whether or not the “masters of the universe” shall be investing your pension financial savings, in our survey of enterprise traits within the yr forward.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Crypto’s golden period: The sector expects lighter regulation and wider adoption underneath Donald Trump, however some fear about systemic dangers.

• Photo voltaic sector: The trade is going through “a lot of distress” after a collapse in demand triggered a wave of bankruptcies in Germany, its most necessary European market.

• Monetary to-do record: From money-saving work perks to investments and tax planning, Claer Barrett has 10 ideas to get your funds in form this new yr.

• ‘Friendshoring’: The ugly, eviscerating saga round Nippon Metal’s takeover bid for US Metal reveals why it’s laborious to be a good friend of America, writes Leo Lewis.

Chart of the day

Nvidia has emerged as an important backer of start-ups making an attempt to realize from the substitute intelligence revolution its chips are powering. The semiconductor group has been pumping ever larger sums into a few of its personal prospects, investing $1bn in AI firms in 2024.

Take a break from the information

The FT’s critics decide the most anticipated scorching tickets in 2025, from movie, theatre, dance and TV to artwork exhibitions, video games, pop and classical music.