The share change is lower than that for the CES estimate. Does this imply there are loads fewer folks employed that indicated by the official sequence (e.g. right here)? Right here’s information from 2023M06 onward:
Determine 1: Change in whole coated employment in Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), not seasonally adjusted (blue), official BLS nonfarm payroll employment (NFP) (crimson), early benchmark NFP (tan), and preliminary benchmark implied (inexperienced), all relative to 2023M06. Supply: BLS, BLS through FRED, Philadelphia Fed, and writer’s calculations.
Whereas usually it’s assumed the preliminary benchmark will probably be extra correct given the usage of tax information, to the extent there’s a substantial part of undocumented employees not having tax information reported on them, it may be the case that each preliminary benchmark and QCEW will probably be understating employment development.
