My guess for personal NFP:
Determine 1: Non-public NFP (daring black), nowcast (blue), +/- 1 std error band (grey), Bloomberg consensus (crimson +). Supply: BLS, Bloomberg, writer’s calculations.
The nowcast is +176K, vs +125K Bloomberg consensus.
The nowcast relies on this regression:
For comparability, GS supplies some massive knowledge nowcasts for complete NFP (GS provides 20K to ADP to scale as much as complete NFP).
Goldman Sachs estimate of complete NFP is at +165K. One can take 20K off to get implied non-public NFP (Bloomberg consensus has 23K distinction).
