From EIA (Might 7, 2024):
Supply: EIA, STEO (Might 2024).
Notice that the forecast is barely above futures. See Chinn and Coibion (2014) on oil futures forecasting efficiency.
Right here’s the gasoline forecast:
Supply: EIA, STEO (Might 2024).
For context, right here’s common gasoline costs (nominal, actual) within the US:
Determine 1: Value of standard gasoline in $/gallon (blue), and in 2017$/gallon (tan). Relative worth calculated by dividing gasoline worth by core CPI; April core CPI based mostly on Cleveland Fed nowcast of 5/8/2024. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: EIA, BLS, by way of FRED, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and creator’s calculations.
