Industrial and manufacturing manufacturing beneath consensus (-0.3% m/m vs -0.1%, -0.4% vs -0.1%, respectively), whereas retail gross sales and core retail gross sales above consensus (+0.4% m/m vs +0.3%, +0.5% vs +0.1%, respectively). Right here’s the ensuing two footage, first one for these indicators adopted by the NBER BCDC, and the second alternate options.
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (daring blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (purple), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring mild inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS through FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 third launch/annual replace, S&P International Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (10/1/2024 launch), and writer’s calculations.
Determine 2: Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (daring blue), civilian employment adjusted utilizing CBO immigration estimates by means of mid-2024 (orange), manufacturing manufacturing (purple), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (mild inexperienced), retail gross sales in 1999M12$ (black), car miles traveled (chartreuse), and coincident index (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Early benchmark is official NFP adjusted by ratio of early benchmark sum-of-states to CES sum of states. Supply: Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve through FRED, BEA 2024Q2 third launch/annual replace, and writer’s calculations.
Industrial manufacturing (which incorporates mining and utilities in addition to manufacturing) is the one index which appears clearly in decline in September. Actual retails gross sales are flat.
Q3 GDPNow is moved up from 3.2% q/q AR on 10/9 to three.4% as of right this moment. Mixed with GS monitoring and WSJ October survey, we now have the next image.
Determine 3: GDP (daring black), WSJ October survey imply (tan), GDPNow as of 10/17 (mild blue sq.), NY Fed nowcast as of 10/11 (purple triangles), St Louis Fed information nowcast as of 10/11 (pink x), Goldman Sachs monitoring as of 10/17 (inexperienced +), FT-Sales space as of 9/14 iterated off of third launch (blue sq.), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Ranges calculated by iterating development fee on ranges of GDP, aside from Survey of Skilled Forecasters. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 third launch, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, WSJ October survey, and writer’s calculations.
As famous in yesterday’s publish, nowcasts (besides St. Louis) look like outpacing the latest survey, from WSJ.
The Lewis-Mertens-Inventory WEI for knowledge obtainable as of 10/12 is at 2.0%, down from 2.22% for knowledge by means of 10/5.
It’s onerous to see a recession within the presently obtainable knowledge as of September.
