Preliminary benchmark revision takes down March employment by 0.9%. Right here’s an image of varied collection related to the manufacturing sector.
Determine 1: Manufacturing manufacturing (blue, left scale), implied employment from preliminary benchmark (tan, left scale), combination hours (inexperienced, left scale), and actual valued added (crimson), all in logs, 2007M12=0, and capability utilization in manufacturing, in % (black, proper scale). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Word: 2007M12 is NBER’s enterprise cycle peak. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA by way of FRED, NBER.
With employment and manufacturing primarily flat (however under end-2023 peaks), I’d be exhausting pressed to say manufacturing is in recession, however right here recession is within the eye of the beholder (given there’s not a technical definition of recession for a subsector).
Word that GS believes the mixture (NFP) benchmark revision of -818K is just too massive; fairly, theyu consider that given lower than complete protection of QCEW and sure revisions, the mixture revision is extra like -300K. This could recommend a smaller downward revision in manufacturing employment.
