Audio right here, at 2:30 roughly. He additionally says personal NFP acquire is all the way down to +56K, whereas personal ex-health care and social companies (all basically authorities), was solely up +12K. Right here’s the image I get taking a look at present classic/newest launch:
Determine 1: Change in nonfarm payroll employment (blue), in personal NFP (tan), in personal NFP ex-health care and social companies employment (inexperienced), all in 000’s, s.a. Supply: BLS by way of FRED and authors calculations.
I couldn’t determine how Kudlow received his numbers. Then I spotted he’d integrated the downward revisions from earlier months, so he ought to’ve stated “on net” or one thing like that. He additionally talked about the ISM and development numbers (the identical that Peter Schiff had talked about). As I famous, these weren’t statistically vital adjustments. In any case, I’ve added Mr. Kudlow to the “recession camp” listing.
Extra stuff from Kudlow: bizarre methods to calculate job features, no recession in Dec. 2007, and so on.
