Up to date to incorporate core PPI:
Determine 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), companies supercore (gentle inexperienced), PPI core (pink), and PCE core (inexperienced), per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4. September commentary based mostly on PCE core nowcasts from Cleveland Fed as of 10/10/2024. Supply: BLS, BEA, Pawel Skrzypczynski, Cleveland Fed, and writer’s calculations.
Instantaneous Core PPI inflation declined. It’s tempting to conclude this motion will feed into the CPI inflation, however this isn’t clearly the case. See this submit for dialogue of formal econometric analyses of whether or not PPI leads CPI.
