At 10am ET, 10 12 months Treasury yields had been at 4.8%, up from 4.7% at Friday’s shut (delta 8 bps). TIPS 10 12 months had been at 2.35% up from 2.32% (delta 3 bps). Right here’re some 5 12 months inflation expectations information during the last 12 months.
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-TIPS breakeven (blue), anticipated inflation (purple), and median anticipated inflation from U.Michigan survey (inexperienced squares), all in %. Final commentary 1/11/2025. Supply: Treasury, Fed DKW, and U.Michigan.
Median 5 12 months expectations went from 3.0% in October to three.2% in November, and three.3% in January (prel.). Apparently, the seventy fifth percentile (versus median) expectation from the U.Michigan survey jumped from 5.5% in October to 7.7% in November.
The NY Fed shopper survey signifies the median 3 12 months forward inflation jumped from 2.54% to 2.97% going from October to December.
