by Calculated Danger on 12/27/2024 08:11:00 AM
Earlier I posted some questions on my weblog for subsequent yr: Ten Financial Questions for 2025. A few of these questions concern actual property (stock, home costs, housing begins, new house gross sales), and I posted ideas on these within the e-newsletter (others like GDP and employment will likely be on this weblog).
I am including some ideas and predictions for every query.
Here’s a evaluation of the Ten Financial Questions for 2024.
7) Wage Development: Wage progress was stable in 2024, up 4.0% year-over-year as of November. How a lot will wages enhance in 2025?
Essentially the most adopted wage indicator is the “Average Hourly Earnings” from the Present Employment Statistics (CES) (aka “Establishment”) month-to-month employment report.
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
The graph exhibits the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all personal workers. There was an enormous enhance at the start of the pandemic as decrease paid workers have been let go, after which the pandemic associated spike reversed a yr later.
Actual wage progress has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in November 2024. Though wage progress was above expectations in November, the pattern is clearly down.
