Heterogeneous Responses of Sentiment, Expectations to Financial Information

From the Michigan survey of shoppers:

Determine 1: Shopper Sentiment for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), Impartial (grey, left scale), Republican/lean Republican (purple, left scale), SF Fed Information Sentiment index (black, proper scale). Vertical dashed line when PredictIt likelihood of Harris win > Trump win. Sept statement for sentiment is preliminary; for information sentiment, by 9/11. Supply: College of Michigan, SF Fed.

As financial information deteriorated in August, Republican/lean Republican sentiment fell as anticipated. Nonetheless, Democratic/lean Democratic sentiment rose. This shift appears to happen when assessed chances for a Democratic presidential candidate rise.

Supply: PredictIt, accessed 9/15/2024.

The disparity in responses is extra apparent when expectations, as famous by Goldman Sachs of their 9/13 word.

Determine 2: Shopper expectations for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), Impartial (grey, left scale), Republican/lean Republican (purple, left scale). Vertical dashed line when PredictIt likelihood of Harris win > Trump win. Sept statement for expectations is preliminary; for information sentiment, by 9/11.Supply: College of Michigan.

Since July the rise is 10% for sentiment (common of present circumstances and expectations), and 15% for expectations. Notice that the survey was taken earlier than the talk.

New ballot out from FT-Ross Faculty/UMich signifies that Harris has pulled forward of Trump when it comes to views on financial administration, though the distinction is inside the statistical margin of error. (FT-Michigan Ross ballot • Ballot of 1,002 registered voters performed Sep 11 – 12; margin of error ±3.1pp. Those that stated neither, each or undecided weren’t included).

Supply: FT, 9/16/2024.