In nominal greenback phrases. Thanks, Trump.
Notes: Tax improve related to introduced Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China assuming a unitary value elasticity of import demand (orange bar), and assuming zero (orange bar plus mild orange bar). Supply: graphic from Factcheck (2012), modified by writer.
Over the weekend, US taxes roughly $2.4 trn value of products (2023 quantities). That’s the largest one 12 months tax improve in greenback phrases since… ever, at $364 bn (if Trump goes by means of with plans). Taxes collected by CPB, and going into the US Treasury. Computerized escalation clauses if the goal nations retaliate (which Canada already has declared).
That’s in nominal greenback phrases. As a share of GDP, it’s 1.2%, 1% assuming unit elasticity.
I notice that with the 30 day deferral for Mexico, it’s nonetheless a $245 bn improve in taxes in impact as of Tuesday.
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