by Calculated Danger on 10/04/2024 09:16:00 AM
The headline jobs quantity within the September employment report was nicely above expectations, and July and August payrolls had been revised up by 72,000 mixed.  The participation price was unchanged, the employment inhabitants ratio elevated, and the unemployment price decreased to 4.1%.
Development employment elevated 25 thousand and is now 688 thousand above the pre-pandemic degree.Â
Manufacturing employment decreased 7 thousand and is now 137 thousand above the pre-pandemic degree.
For the reason that general participation price is impacted by each cyclical (recession) and demographic (getting older inhabitants, youthful individuals staying at school) causes, right here is the employment-population ratio for the important thing working age group: 25 to 54 years outdated.
The 25 to 54 years outdated participation decreased in September to 83.8% from 83.9% in August.
The 25 to 54 employment inhabitants ratio was unchanged at 80.9% from 80.9% the earlier month.
Common Hourly Wages
The graph exhibits the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all personal staff from the Present Employment Statistics (CES). Â
Wage development has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in September. Â
From the BLS report:
“The variety of individuals employed half time for financial causes modified little at 4.6 million in
September. This measure is up from 4.1 million a 12 months earlier. These people would have
most popular full-time employment however had been working half time as a result of their hours had been diminished
or they had been unable to search out full-time jobs.“
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62 million from 4.83 million in August. This is above the pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.7% from 7.9% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph exhibits the variety of staff unemployed for 27 weeks or extra.
In keeping with the BLS, there are 1.63 million staff who’ve been unemployed for greater than 26 weeks and nonetheless desire a job, up from 1.53 million the earlier month.
That is above pre-pandemic ranges.
Job Streak
By means of September 2024, the employment report indicated constructive job development for 45 consecutive months, placing the present streak tied in 4th place of the longest job streaks in US historical past (since 1939). It seems this streak will survive the annual benchmark revision (that may revise down job development).
| Headline Jobs, Prime 10 Streaks | ||
|---|---|---|
| Yr Ended | Streak, Months | |
| 1 | 2019 | 100 |
| 2 | 1990 | 48 |
| 3 | 2007 | 46 |
| 4 tie | 1979 | 45 |
| 4 tie | 20241 | 45 |
| 6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | 25 |
| 1Currrent Streak | ||
Abstract:
The headline jobs quantity within the September employment report was nicely above expectations, and July and August payrolls had been revised up by 72,000 mixed. The participation price was unchanged, the employment inhabitants ratio elevated, and the unemployment price decreased to 4.1%.
This was a powerful employment report.
