by Calculated Danger on 9/06/2024 09:12:00 AM
The headline jobs quantity within the August employment report was beneath expectations, and June and July payrolls had been revised down by 82,000 mixed. The participation price and the employment inhabitants ratio had been unchanged, and the unemployment price decreased to 4.2%.
Building employment elevated 34 thousand and is now 665 thousand above the pre-pandemic degree.
Manufacturing employment decreased 24 thousand and is now 147 thousand above the pre-pandemic degree.
Because the general participation price is impacted by each cyclical (recession) and demographic (growing old inhabitants, youthful folks staying at school) causes, right here is the employment-population ratio for the important thing working age group: 25 to 54 years previous.
The 25 to 54 years previous participation price decreased in August to 83.9% from 84.0% in July.
The 25 to 54 employment inhabitants ratio was unchanged at 80.9% from 80.9% the earlier month.
Common Hourly Wages
The graph exhibits the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all non-public workers from the Present Employment Statistics (CES).
Wage progress has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% YoY in August.
From the BLS report:
“The variety of folks employed half time for financial causes was little modified at 4.8 million
in August. This measure is up from 4.2 million a 12 months earlier. These people would have
most well-liked full-time employment however had been working half time as a result of their hours had been decreased
or they had been unable to seek out full-time jobs.“
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83 million from 4.57 million in July. This is above the pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.9% from 7.8% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph exhibits the variety of employees unemployed for 27 weeks or extra.
In line with the BLS, there are 1.533 million employees who’ve been unemployed for greater than 26 weeks and nonetheless need a job, essentialy unchanged from 1.535 million the earlier month.
That is above pre-pandemic ranges.
Job Streak
By means of August 2024, the employment report indicated optimistic job progress for 44 consecutive months, placing the present streak in fifth place of the longest job streaks in US historical past (since 1939). It seems this streak will survive the annual benchmark revision (that may revise down job progress).
| Headline Jobs, Prime 10 Streaks | ||
|---|---|---|
| 12 months Ended | Streak, Months | |
| 1 | 2019 | 100 |
| 2 | 1990 | 48 |
| 3 | 2007 | 46 |
| 4 | 1979 | 45 |
| 5 | 20241 | 44 |
| 6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | 25 |
| 1Currrent Streak | ||
Abstract:
The headline jobs quantity within the August employment report was beneath expectations, and June and July payrolls had been revised down by 82,000 mixed. The participation price and the employment inhabitants ratio had been unchanged, and the unemployment price decreased to 4.2%.
A weaker than anticipated report, and the three-month common employment progress has slowed to 116 per 30 days. The unemployment price is up from a low of three.4% in early 2023 to 4.2% in August (though down barely from July).
