Nonetheless onerous to see the recession in (preliminary) August 2024 information.
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (daring blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (pink), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring gentle inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (gentle blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS through FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 third launch/annual replace, S&P International Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (9/3/2024 launch), and creator’s calculations.
The Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index (primarily based on labor market information, scaled to US GDP pattern development) in addition to the NFP early benchmark (via 3/2024, extrapolated primarily based on CES thereafter) point out continued development. Manufacturing manufacturing and retail gross sales appear to be trending sideways.
Determine 2: Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (daring blue), civilian employment adjusted utilizing CBO immigration estimates by mid-2024 (orange), manufacturing manufacturing (pink), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (gentle inexperienced), retail gross sales in 1999M12$ (black), car miles travelled (chartreuse), and coincident index (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Early benchmark is official NFP adjusted by ratio of early benchmark sum-of-states to CES sum of states. Supply: Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve, NHTSA through FRED, BEA 2024Q2 third launch/annual replace, and creator’s calculations.
Excessive frequency indicators, just like the Lewis-Mertens-Inventory/NY Fed WEI, present acceleration to 2.69% utilizing information obtainable as of 9/21. The Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims WECI reads -0.31%, indicating 1.69% development if 2% is pattern.
As for nowcasts, the GDPNow has been raised to three.01% for Q3. The NY Fed’s nowcast is 2.99% vs. 3.01, with the This fall quantity raised barely.
