From the Employment State of affairs Launch:
Determine 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), NFP early benchmark (tan), and CPS employment adjusted to NFP idea (inexperienced), all in 1000’s, s.a.. Philadelphia Fed NFP early benchmark calculated by making use of early benchmark sum of states degree ratio to post-benchmark sum of states degree to CES nationwide degree NFP. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Philadelphia Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Determine 2: Non-public nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), from ADP (inexperienced), and mixture weekly hours for personal nonfarm (tan), all in logs, 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS, ADP by way of FRED.
Determine 3: Common hourly earnings for personal nonfarm (black), Bloomberg consensus y/y (gentle blue sq.), and CPI (darkish purple), all 2021M11=0. April CPI primarily based on Cleveland Fed nowcast of 5/3. Supply: BLS, Bloomberg, Cleveland Fed and creator’s calculations.
Determine 4: Sahm rule real-time indicator (darkish blue), and 0.50% threshold (dashed purple line). Supply: FRED.
