Will Elon Musk publish greater than 400 tweets this week? Greater than 800? Estimate accurately and you can wind up with a pleasant chunk of money should you have been to again your opinion by shopping for “shares” on Polymarket.
The typically controversial Polymarket is among the web’s “prediction markets.” That’s a elaborate — and pretty refined — technique to put your cash the place your mouth is while you really feel the urge to state an opinion on the web. Even when your opinion is “I’ll bet Musk tweets more than 400 times this week.”
Certainly, the Musk tweeting “market” on the positioning is so lively that it’s been given a top-level website hyperlink and repeats weekly. This week’s market, which ends on January 17, has already executed over $1.9 million in buying and selling quantity and it routinely hits greater than $1 million. That’s to not say you’d win that a lot cash. Your payout would depend upon what number of shares you purchased ought to your tweet-volume guess show true. (Polymarket didn’t reply to our request for touch upon how a lot cash this market has paid out.)
Website data present it’s been a weekly market since at the least June. And there’s a second one the place customers can wager on the variety of tweets ranging between 300 and 550+ in 25-tweet increments.
The discussions in the marketplace get severe, too, sounding considerably like horse monitor gamblers speaking about their choose of ponies. For example, on Tuesday, person “Rogu” analyzed: “Current tweets per day is at 50, on pace to hit 350. To get to 400+ he’d need to average more than 65 per day for the remaining time. While that is a fair bit more, it’s not *that* much. With the upcoming Starship test flight he might be tweeting a bit more than these past few days.”
Rogu is referring to SpaceX’s Starship Flight 7 launch, which is scheduled for January 15.
Polymarket’s fundamental competitor, Kalshi, additionally has an Elon Musk top-level hyperlink, nevertheless it hyperlinks to all kinds of wanna-bet kind opinions on Musk, starting from what his roles is likely to be within the new administration to guesses about his future web price. (Individuals can little question wager or purchase shares on these issues on Polymarket, too.)
However how a lot time Musk will spend on his favourite, personally owned social media website has been an ongoing favourite. And it must be one of many silliest but entertaining methods folks spend their cash on the web.
