Disingenuousnous Watch | Econbrowser

EJ Antoni/Heritage writes:

One other month, one other document excessive for the variety of gov’t workers

Effectively, sure. In fact, inhabitants can be at a document excessive. So too is nominal GDP. What to do…what to do… possibly normalize? Possibly select an extended pattern interval?

Determine 1: Authorities workers, 000’s (blue, left scale), and authorities workers as a ratio of inhabitants (tan, proper scale), each s.a. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, BEA by way of FRED, NBER. 

That being mentioned, I’m grateful the EJ Antoni/Heritage has stopped utilizing the CPS measure of presidency employment (which he did right here). An inspection of the CES and CPS counterparts highlights the truth that the CPS measure is unreliable at excessive frequencies.

Determine 2: Authorities workers from CES (blue), from CPS (pink), each s.a. S NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, NBER.