by Calculated Danger on 9/23/2024 11:01:00 AM
In the present day, within the Calculated Danger Actual Property Publication: Watch Months-of-Provide!
A quick excerpt:
Each stock and gross sales are nicely beneath pre-pandemic ranges, and I believe we have to control months-of-supply to forecast value adjustments. Traditionally nominal costs declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months – and that’s unlikely any time quickly – nonetheless, as anticipated, months-of-supply is again to 2019 ranges.
Months-of-supply was at 4.2 months in August in comparison with 4.0 months in August 2019. Though stock has declined considerably in comparison with 2019, gross sales have fallen much more – pushing up months-of-supply.
The next graph reveals months-of-supply since 2017. Notice that months-of-supply is larger than the final 3 years (2021 – 2023), and above August 2019. Months-of-supply was at 4.2 in August 2017 and 4.3 in August 2018. In 2020 (black), months-of-supply elevated firstly of the pandemic after which declined sharply.
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What would it not take to get months-of-supply above 5 months? If gross sales keep depressed at 2023 and 2024 ranges, how a lot would stock have to extend to place months-of-supply at 5 months by, say, June 2024?
There’s way more within the article.
