From Polymarket, accessed 4pm CT right now:
So low chance…alternatively, it is a bunch of non-American residents betting on a US financial occasion. For comparability, Polymarket (which can’t function within the US) signifies 52-46 Trump/Harris, whereas PredictIt (which might function within the US) charges 52-52. Polymarket has persistently predicted a better chance of Trump successful (vs. Harris) than PredicIt.
I need to confess some uncertainty concerning the betting, since consequence is to be decided by 12/31/2024, however we gained’t have This fall GDP till January 2025…Listed here are the principles:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Financial Evaluation (BEA) reviews two consecutive quarters of damaging GDP progress in the USA throughout the calendar 12 months 2024, primarily based on the seasonally adjusted annual fee. This consists of any two successive quarters: Q1-Q2, Q2-Q3, or Q3-This fall. The dedication can be primarily based on probably the most lately launched report by the BEA for every quarter.
If GDP knowledge for Q1, Q2, or Q3 is revised earlier than the discharge of the Advance Estimate for This fall, the latest revision accessible can be used for market decision as a substitute of the preliminary Advance Estimate. Revisions made after the discharge of the This fall Advance Estimate is not going to be thought-about for any quarters, together with This fall itself.
The first decision supply for this market is the BEA’s official knowledge on the seasonally adjusted annualized p.c change in quarterly US actual GDP, as accessible on their web site. A consensus of credible reporting may be used if there’s ambiguity within the official knowledge.
