Continued progress:
Determine 1: GDP (daring black), August Survey of Skilled Forecasters (daring purple), July WSJ (teal), GDPNow of 8/8 (gentle blue sq.), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 advance, WSJ survey, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and writer’s calculations.
The NY Fed nowcast for Q3 is barely decrease (2.24% vs. 2.9%).
The survey signifies 16% and 21% imply possibilities of a adverse quarter in 2024Q3 and 2024Q4 respectively. For the 1967-2024 to this point interval, the proportion quarters experiencing adverse progress is about 14%.
As famous right here, solely two folks within the WSJ July survey indicated two consecutive quarters of adverse progress.
