Bear in mind Shadowstats? Properly, there’s at all times a John Williams. Right here’s Tucker in EpochTimes (reprinted in ZeroHedge):
…U.S. inflation has been accelerating since September 2021. It’s now working 3 % in actual time, or 50 % above the goal. This continued ache follows 4 years of the worst inflation in at the very least 40 years and possibly for much longer. By some measures, what we’ve been by means of equals or exceeds the ache of the Nineteen Seventies. The one distinction this time is that the bean counters in authorities have gotten higher at hiding it.
Onerous to determine the place to begin. First, right here’s an image of inflation utilizing CPI and PCE deflator.
Determine 1: 12 months-on-year CPI inflation (blue), PCE deflator inflation (purple). Dashed vertical line at September 2021.Figures are November y/y inflation charges. Supply: BLS, BEA by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
First, as of November’s numbers, inflation utilizing both value index is 3%. Second, inflation did speed up from September 2021 till mid 2022 — but it surely’s decelerated since then, considerably.
Third, the goal shouldn’t be 2% for CPI inflation — the goal for CPI inflation according to 2% for PCE deflator inflation is about 2.45%. By my reckoning, 2.4% PCE inflation shouldn’t be 50% larger than goal, however 20% larger.
Fourth, whereas the latest bout of inflation — which is previous — is likely to be the worst in 40 years, however I can not decide by what “measures” it was worse.
Determine 2: 12 months-on-year CPI inflation (blue), PCE deflator inflation (purple). Dashed vertical line at September 2021.Figures are November y/y inflation charges. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, BEA by way of FRED, NBER, and creator’s calculations.
Fourth, the assertion that the federal government statisticians are “better at hiding it” is the phrase most redolent of the Shadowstats mindset. What does Mr. Tucker bear in mind. Properly, bear in mind he’s the coauthor with Heritage’s EJ Antoni of the paper that asserted that correctly measured, GDP has been declining since 2022 — with out ever displaying how he constructed his most popular deflator.
So, when subsequent you learn some commentator saying that the Biden administration handed a horrible economic system to Trump, learn fastidiously.
