Sentiment, Confidence, and Expectations: The Latter Is Down

U.Michigan client sentiment and Convention Board financial confidence rise. However expectations drop.

Determine 1: College of Michigan Shopper Sentiment (blue, left scale), Convention Board Financial Confidence (tan, left scale), and Gallup Financial Confidence (inexperienced, proper scale). Supply: U.Michigan through FRED, Convention Board, Gallup. 

Present circumstances had been up partly due to the impetus to purchase now to keep away from future tariffs.

Curiously, expectations as measured by U. Michigan have dropped, attributed to nervousness concerning the consequences of tariffs. Nonetheless, Republicans/lean Republican have seen their expectations soar, whereas Democrats/lean Democrats have seen the reverse (as occurred, in reverse, in 2020).

Determine 2: College of Michigan Expectations (daring black), expectations of Democrats/lean Democratic (blue), expectations of Republicans/lean Republican (purple). Supply: College of Michigan, FRED.

The Convention Board expectations index additionally evidenced a drop:

Supply: Convention Board.

The Convention Board’s notice on the December outcomes included:

In write-in responses about elements affecting shoppers’ views of the economic system, mentions of politics—together with the result of November’s elections—continued to rise. Mentions of tariffs additionally elevated in December. Notably, a particular query this month confirmed that 46% of US shoppers anticipated tariffs to lift the price of residing whereas 21% anticipated tariffs to create extra US jobs.

Definitely, uncertainty has elevated for the reason that election, relative to the latest previous.

Determine 3: EPU (blue, left scale), EPU centered 7-day shifting common (pink, left scale), and VIX (inexperienced, proper scale). Supply: EPU, CBOE through FRED, writer’s calculations.

Individuals voted for this (effectively, not less than a plurality did), so right here we go…