Core PPI beneath consensus (0% vs. +0.3% m/m).
Determine 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) per Eeckhout (2023) for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI, seasonally adjusted by writer utilizing X-13 (tan), PCE deflator (pink), CPI supercore (teal), PPI core (gentle inexperienced). Supply: BLS, BEA through FRED, BLS, and writer’s calculations.
Right here’s a element.
Determine 2: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) per Eeckhout (2023) for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI, seasonally adjusted by writer utilizing X-13 (tan), PCE deflator (pink), CPI supercore (teal), PPI core (gentle inexperienced). Could PCE core for Could is Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 6/13. Supply: BLS, BEA through FRED, BLS, Cleveland Fed, and writer’s calculations.
Be aware that Could remark for core PCE instantaneous inflation incorporates the Cleveland Fed nowcast.
