5 Financial Causes to be Grateful

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Listed below are 5 financial causes to be grateful this Thanksgiving. (Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who began doing this years in the past)

1) The Unemployment Price is at 4.1%

The unemployment fee was at 4.1% in October. 

The unemployment fee is down from 14.7% in April 2020 (the best fee because the Nice Melancholy).

The unemployment fee is up from 3.4% in April 2023 – and that matched the bottom unemployment fee since 1969!

It is a traditionally low unemployment fee.


2) Low unemployment claims.

WeeklyClaimsNov272024This graph reveals the 4-week shifting common of weekly claims since 1971.

Weekly claims had been at 213,000 final week.

The dashed line on the graph is the present 4-week common.

Regardless that weekly claims have bounced round somewhat not too long ago, the 4-week common is near the bottom stage in 50 years.

3) Mortgage Debt as a P.c of GDP has Fallen Considerably

Mortgage Debt as Percent GDP This graph reveals family mortgage debt as a % of GDP.  

Notice this graph is thru Q2 2024 was impacted by the sharp decline in Q2 2020 GDP.

Mortgage debt is up $2.34 trillion from the height throughout the housing bubble, however, as a % of GDP is at 45.9% – down from Q1 – and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP throughout the housing bust.

4) Mortgage Delinquency Price Close to the Lowest Stage since at the least 1979

MBA National Delinquency Survey

This graph, primarily based on information from the MBA via Q3 2024, reveals the % of loans delinquent by days overdue.  
Though mortgage delinquencies are up somewhat from Q2 2023 – the bottom stage because the MBA survey began in 1979 – delinquencies are nonetheless traditionally very low.
Notice: The sharp enhance in 2020 within the 90-day bucket was because of loans in forbearance (included as delinquent however not reported to the credit score bureaus).

The % of loans within the foreclosures course of are near the file low.

5) Family Debt burdens at Low Ranges (ex-pandemic)

Financial ObligationsThis graph, primarily based on information from the Federal Reserve, reveals the Family Debt Service Ratio (DSR), and the DSR for mortgages (blue) and shopper debt (yellow).

The Family debt service ratio was at 11.5% in Q2 2024, barely beneath the pre-pandemic stage of 11.6%.
The DSR for mortgages (blue) has elevated not too long ago however is near the pre-pandemic stage.

This information suggests combination family money stream is in a strong place.

Joyful Thanksgiving to All!

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